Dr Michael Davey


  • Jan 2017-now: Research Scientist, DAMTP (part-time)
  • Sep 2012-Nov 2015: Research Scientist, DAMTP (part-time)
  • 1985-2017: climate scientist, Met Office 
            (full time to Sept 2007, part-time thereafter)
  • 2007-Sept 2011:
    Professorial Research Associate, University College London
  • 1981-1984: Research Associate,  DAMTP, University of Cambridge
  • 1979-1980: Research Associate, University of Washington, Seattle,  USA.
  • 1978: Post-doctoral Fellow, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA.


Mike is a research scientist at the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, with the atmosphere-ocean research group.  Until August 2017 he was also employed part-time by the Met Office, in the monthly-to-decadal variability and prediction group.  He has a background in geophysical fluid dynamics,  and extensive experience with the development of prediction systems and products, and analysis of climate data. His interests are modelling of climate processes, especially with application to seasonal forecasting.  The El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon and its world-wide teleconnections are a particular theme of research.

Selected Publications from 2001


  • Ineson et al., Predicting El Nino in 2014 and 2015. Nature Sci. Reports, 8, 2018. doi:10.1038/s41598-018-29130-1
  • Davey. Introductory geophysical fluid dynamics. In: Fluid and Solid Mechanics, eds. Bullett, Fearn and Smith. pp1-33. 2016. ISBN 9781786340269.
  • Kowalski and Davey, A simple model of ocean temperature re-emergence and variability. Tellus A, 67, 2015.
  • Davey et al., The probability of the impact of ENSO on precipitation and near-surface temperature.Climate Risk Management, 1, 5-24, 2013
  • Davey and Brookshaw, Long-range meteorological forecasting and links to agricultural applications. Food Policy, 2011
  • Vitart et al., Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity.
    Geophys. Res. Letters, 2007.
  • McGregor et al., Winter season climate prediction for the UK health sector.
    J. App. Met. Clim., 2006
  • Graham et al., A performance comparison of coupled and uncoupled versions of the Met Office seasonal prediction general circulation model.  Tellus, 2005
  • Palmer et al., Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 2004.
  • Spencer et al., Seasonal predictability of ENSO teleconnections: the role of the remote ocean response. Clim. Dyn., 2004.
  • Colman and Davey, Statistical prediction of global sea surface temperature anomalies. Int. J. Climatology, 2003
  • Davey et al.,  STOIC: a study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions. Clim. Dyn., 2002
  • Folland et al.,Predictability of North East Brazil rainfall and real-time forecast skill. 
    J. Climate, 2001